empty
05.08.2024 12:53 PM
Forecast of GBP/USD pair on August 5, 2024

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 1.2705 level on Friday, turning in favor of the pound and rising to the upper line of the downward trend channel. The channel had to be slightly adjusted, but it continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish." This morning, the quotes fell to Friday's low. A new rebound from the 1.2705 level will allow for some growth, but there is some nervousness in the market from early on. Movements during the day can be sharp.

This image is no longer relevant

The situation with the waves has changed a bit. The last completed upward wave (which started forming on July 2) managed to break the low of the previous upward wave, and the latest downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave. Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bullish" trend and a deep corrective wave or series of waves. Growth of the pound may resume, but now traders are forming a corrective wave downward. There is no indication yet of a trend change to "bearish" from a wave perspective. For this, the pair needs to break the last low from July 2. However, the waves are now very long, and in recent weeks the pound has only been falling. Locally, the trend is "bearish."

The information background on Friday also did not allow the bears to continue attacking. However, I want to remind you that on Thursday, the Bank of England decided to start easing monetary policy. Thus, in the coming weeks, the pound may continue to fall due to this news factor. As we see, the dollar's fall due to the poor labor market and unemployment statistics in the US was short-lived. Without any apparent reasons, by Monday morning, the pound plunged lower. I believe that the local "bearish" trend persists and will continue this week. Traders are now paying more attention to monetary policy, and the data on the labor market and unemployment in the US have not been pleasing for several months in a row. Traders have reacted to this news; now we can return to the main trend.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 1.3044 level, forming a "bearish" divergence at the RSI indicator. A little earlier, the same indicator entered the overbought zone. Thus, several signals for selling on the senior chart were received. After consolidating below the 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745, the falling process can be continued towards the 1.2620 level. A rebound from this level will allow for some growth.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In my view, the prospects for a fall in the pound remain, but the COT reports say otherwise. Over the last 3 months, the number of long positions increased from 98 thousand to 165 thousand, while the number of short positions remained unchanged at 54 thousand. I believe that over time, professional players will again begin to dispose of long positions or increase short positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been played out. However, it should not be forgotten that this is just an assumption. Graphic analysis indicates a very likely fall in the near future, but this does not mean that the fall will last several months or half a year.

News Calendar for the USA and UK:

  • UK – Business Activity Index in the services sector (08:30 UTC).
  • USA – Business Activity Index in the services sector (13:45 UTC).
  • USA – ISM Business Activity Index in the services sector (14:00 UTC).

Monday's economic event calendar contains several important entries. The impact of the informational background on market sentiment today is of medium strength.

GBP/USD Forecast and Tips for Traders:

The market started the new week very nervously; I do not yet see clear signals. Movements are strong, and it's quite difficult to respond in time. A rebound from the 1.2705 level can be used for purchases, but trading today should be done cautiously.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.2892 to 1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248 to 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 22/01/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Oil and Bitcoin

Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:13 Totay's key events: CPI, Interest Rate, World Economic Forum Annual Meetings, ECB President Lagarde Speaks, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 01:19 EUR/USD 03:22 GBP/USD 04:34

Sebastian Seliga 12:42 2025-01-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: January 22nd. Bulls Persist in Trying to Take Control

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the support zone of 1.0336–1.0346, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the euro, and rose to the resistance zone of 1.0435–1.0448

Samir Klishi 11:25 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 22, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the pound on Tuesday and rose nearly to the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370. However, the pair fell short

Samir Klishi 11:21 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Video analysis for January 22, 2025

Potential for the further rally on EUR/USD

Petar Jacimovic 10:16 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday January 22, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the AUD/JPY cross currency pair, it appears that Buyers are starting to enter again, which is confirmed by the appearance of divergence

Arief Makmur 09:28 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Wednesday January 22, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the main currency pair EUR/USD, it appears that there is a divergence between the Fiber price movement and the MACD Histogram indicator

Arief Makmur 09:28 2025-01-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 22 - Technical Analysis of the Situation

Yesterday's trading failed to maintain the upward momentum, but the pair remained above the weekly short-term trend level of 1.0404. If the bulls can hold their position and overcome

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 22, 2025

Yesterday's session displayed strong intraday volatility across the financial markets. As noted previously, the first day of Donald Trump's presidency appears to be more ambiguous for the financial world

Laurie Bailey 03:42 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 22, 2025

The British pound has approached the resistance level of 1.2367, which aligns with the Fibonacci retracement of the most recent decline from December 6 to January 13. This retracement

Laurie Bailey 03:42 2025-01-22 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on January 22, 2025

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 144 pips, ultimately closing with a slight decline of 12 pips. This movement suggests a continuation of a sideways trend

Laurie Bailey 03:42 2025-01-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.