EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair made a successful attempt to overcome the level of 1.0000 on Thursday. It spent very little time below this level, since, as we assume, Take Profit orders or pending long positions again worked, so the euro ended the day above the level of 1.0000. However, in principle, everything is going according to the plan that we have already voiced. Namely: the euro will continue to fall. There were no important macroeconomic reports or fundamental events on Thursday. It is hardly possible to consider the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits as such, the value of which, moreover, almost coincided with the forecast. Nevertheless, as we can see, volatility remains high, and the market does not give up attempts to move further down. Only one thing is bad: the bulls have a strong resistance at the current levels, so the pair starts to ride on the "swing".

There were four trading signals on Thursday, and all of them were near the 1.0000 level. However, there was no flat during the day, rather, on the contrary. Recall that there are very few extreme levels at current price values, and the Ichimoku indicator lines are located much higher. The first sell signal was formed when the price settled below 1.0000. Down after its formation, 33 points were passed, so traders hardly received profit on this deal. But there could not be a loss either, since Stop Loss should have been set to breakeven. The next buy signal was formed in a couple of hours, and after its formation, the price managed to go up more than 20 points, so in this case Stop Loss should have been set to break even. All subsequent signals should be ignored, since the first two turned out to be false.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro over the past six months have raised a huge number of questions. The chart above clearly shows that they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro was also falling. At this time, the situation has changed, and NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, but the euro was falling, now the mood has become bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions increased by 7,700, and the number of shorts in the non-commercial group increased by 14,000. Accordingly, the net position decreased again, by almost 7,000 contracts. The mood of big players remains bearish and has even increased slightly in recent weeks. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even commercial traders do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 17,000. Therefore, we can state that not only the demand for the US dollar remains high, but also the demand for the euro is quite low. This may lead to a new, even greater fall of the euro. In principle, over the past few months or even more, the euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction, not to mention something more. The highest upward movement was about 400 points.

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EUR/USD 1H

The downward trend continues on the hourly timeframe. The pair is still trying to start a tangible upward correction, but so far it has failed. The bears are systematically pushing the euro further down, not paying much attention to the almost complete absence of macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds. We highlight the following levels for trading on Friday - 1.0000, 1.0072, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0243) and Kijun-sen (1.0068) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no important publications or events scheduled for July 15 in the European Union. Three secondary reports will be released in America today - retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. We believe there will be little or no response to these reports.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.