empty
14.02.2022 04:51 AM
7UVOverview of the GBP/USD pair. February 14. Boris Johnson's political career depends on Scotland Yard.

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade very erratically on Friday. In principle, the whole last week was spent in very chaotic trading, which is seen in the illustration above. At the end of the week, the pound barely managed to stay above the moving average line, so formally the upward trend persists. As we have repeatedly said, the British currency has much more reason to show growth against the dollar. The Bank of England has already raised the key rate twice and intends to raise it at least twice more this year. Thus, if anyone can grow now against the dollar, it is the pound, because the Fed has never raised the rate, but only promises. But at the same time, do not forget about the intensity of passions around the NATO-Russia conflict. In the event of an escalation of the conflict, the world markets will not be able to react to it. And in this case, the dollar will have new grounds for growth, as the world reserve currency. First, there will be a massive outflow of capital from Ukraine and Russia. And these are dollars. Second, many risky assets will be dumped to avoid risks. Also through dollars. Therefore, we fully assume that the pound may resume its decline in the near future, since simply the dollar will begin to rise in price again. The technical picture of the British currency is very confusing right now. Moreover, the ambiguity is visible on almost all timeframes. There are no clear trends, important lines of the Ichimoku indicator are ignored. The movement itself is as incomprehensible and chaotic as possible. Therefore, the pound, from our point of view, is now the "dark horse" from which it is unclear what to expect.

Boris Johnson will try to avoid punishment for "coronavirus parties".

Let's move a little away from the topic of the conflict in Eastern Europe and return to the figure of Boris Johnson, who has been actively commenting on the actions of the Russian Federation in recent days, which, according to many experts, was done to distract public attention from the figure of Boris Johnson himself. Recall that Scotland Yard took over the investigation of "coronavirus parties". However, the police immediately warned that, most likely, they would not be able to prove Johnson's guilt, especially since it had been a long time ago. Nevertheless, yesterday, it became known that "questionnaires" were sent to everyone who was at those parties, and there are about 50 members of Parliament. These "questionnaires" contain questions about parties during the "lockdown". It is noted that if the answers to the questions do not suit the London police, they will conduct a survey and, if the guilt of Johnson and his colleagues is confirmed, they will have to pay a fine. However, naturally, it is not the fine that scares Boris and his entourage. The fact is that with the official admission of the Prime Minister's guilt, this whole story will receive a new development, and Johnson's career will be under even greater threat than it is now. British experts say that several members of the British Parliament who were previously convicted of quarantine violations were forced to resign. Then, what is better than Boris Johnson and those 50 parliamentarians? It is also reported that the Prime Minister will try to present the situation as if the residence on Downing Street could act as a workplace and, accordingly, "working meetings" with alcoholic beverages could take place in it. In general, this story may develop in the near future. We have already written earlier that even within the Conservative Party, "anti-Johnson" sentiments are maturing with might and main. This means that they are dissatisfied with him and letters are already beginning to be collected by the "committee of 1922". If the number of letters approving Johnson's resignation from his fellow party members reaches 50-60, this could trigger a vote of no confidence and a change in the leader of the Conservative Party. However, from a technical point of view, as long as the pound/dollar pair remains above the moving average, the probability of continuing the upward movement remains.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 79 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Monday, February 14, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3475 and 1.3633. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3550

S2 – 1.3489

S3 – 1.3428

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3611

R2 – 1.3672

R3 – 1.3733

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe continues to balance on the verge of not falling below the moving average. Thus, at this time, long positions with targets of 1.3611 and 1.3633 should be considered if there is a new rebound from the moving average line. It is recommended to consider short positions if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with targets of 1.3489 and 1.3475.

Explanations to the illustrations:

Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong now.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.

Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD: ECB's "Hawkish Pause" and Conflicting Macroeconomic Reports

The results of the ECB July meeting provided slight support for the euro. However, contradictory macroeconomic reports and anticipation of the outcome of the US-EU negotiations played a restraining role

Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Euro Outsmarted the "Bears"

There was no "sell the fact" reaction. One of the reasons behind the recent EUR/USD rally was the expectation that the deposit rate would be held at 2% following

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Will There Be a Deal Between the EU and the US?

The European Union has ultimately made a move toward Donald Trump. However, calling it a compromise would be inaccurate, as it is Brussels—not Washington—that is largely conceding. Nevertheless, media reports

Chin Zhao 20:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair is retreating from its daily high. According to European Commission officials, the EU and the US are close to reaching an agreement that would include 15% tariffs

Irina Yanina 14:00 2025-07-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair broke a three-day losing streak, as Japan's domestic political uncertainty, disappointing manufacturing PMI data, and prevailing risk appetite remain key factors limiting the yen's growth

Irina Yanina 13:55 2025-07-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union

Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

USD/CHF – Analysis and Forecast

The uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy is holding back the growth of the U.S. dollar, while trade-related optimism continues to undermine the Swiss franc's status as a safe-haven asset

Irina Yanina 11:43 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Why Isn't the Euro Falling Against the US Dollar? (There Is a Possibility of Limited Downside in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

The euro continues to show steady growth against the dollar, which may seem irrational at first glance, but there are significant reasons behind this. Let's examine them. Today, the European

Pati Gani 09:47 2025-07-24 UTC+2

The Market Has Made It Clear

The economy remains strong, and U.S. trade deals with other countries are bringing clarity. What could be better for the S&P 500? Perhaps a fireworks display of corporate earnings that

Marek Petkovich 08:57 2025-07-24 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, but they will all be similar in nature. Business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors for July will

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-07-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.