EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair continued its "convulsive" movements on Thursday. The volatility of the pair was less than 40 points during the day. Thus, it was very difficult to rely on a large number of trading signals and profit once again. What is especially surprising - yesterday the results of the European Central Bank meeting were announced, which usually always provokes an increase in volatility. At least a little. But not at this time. Certain bursts of emotions were observed in the market, but they again fit in 40 points. Even less. Thus, there is not even any point in paying attention to the results of the ECB. What difference does it make if the pair still covers the minimum distances, which are almost impossible to work out? However, be that as it may, one buy signal was generated during the day. The price dropped to the Senkou Span B line in the middle of the US trading session, which we placed yesterday at 1.1817, but dropped to 1.1805 during the day. On the 4-hour timeframe, you can clearly see why we did it, since it was at this price point that the price bounced off the line. This rebound also coincided with the development of the support level of 1.1804. One way or another, a buy signal was generated and should have been worked out. And you could earn 10 points on a long position. If you manually close the deal in the late afternoon. However, with a total volatility of less than 40 points and 10 points of profit, this is a good result.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 10. The ECB meeting turned out to be completely passable.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 10. The pound started flying again, but is not picking up speed yet. Fed members did not return the bearish mood to the market.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair was caught in a triangle on the hourly timeframe. Yesterday, a descending trend line was formed, which did not let the quotes surpass it, but the Senkou Span B line did not let the price below it. Thus, the price may leave this triangle in the near future, which will determine its fate for the next few days. If the trend line is crossed, then it will be possible to expect an upward movement, which is what we are counting on. On Friday, we continue to draw traders' attention to important levels and lines - 1.1750, 1.1805, 1.1857, 1.1894, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1817) and Kijun-sen (1.1871) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the European Union on September 10. However, a similar speech took place yesterday and, as we can see, the markets cheerfully ignored it. Thus, it is extremely unlikely that the markets will work out this event today. There is an extremely low probability that Lagarde will report something new and important. A completely empty calendar of macroeconomic events in America. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, today we will again witness low volatility. Although on Fridays sometimes there are strong movements that are not based on anything.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points during the last reporting week (August 24-30). However, despite the fact that the European currency has been growing for two weeks now, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports continue to signal a reduction in the net position of non-commercial traders, which can only indicate a weakening of the bullish sentiment. The net position of the "non-commercial" group has already dropped to almost zero, which means almost complete equality in the number of open contracts for longs (buying) and shorts (selling) of big players. If we draw the most banal conclusion, then the major players are now looking towards selling the euro. But, as we have already said many times, during such a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, the EUR/USD pair dropped only 600 points. Recall that the entire upward trend is valued at 1,700 points. So for now, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: big players may be inclined to sell off the euro, but the cash infusions from the Federal Reserve, which have not yet stopped, continue to level the imbalance in supply and demand for the European currency. Simply put, the Fed continues to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, corny increasing the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and provoking a rise in inflation. Therefore, commercial players can sell off the euro, but the money supply of the dollar is growing at about the same rate (or even more), which leads to a very modest fall of the euro against the dollar, which can end at any moment. The "non-commercial" group opened 11,000 new contacts for shorts during the reporting week, and the total number of Buy and Sell contracts is now in the ratio of 192.5 thousand - 180.5 thousand.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
