Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 99 points. As a result of which, the quotation returned to the resistance level again. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the correction course, after all, still remains in the market, where the quotation felt the resistance once again in the region of the periodic value of 1.2300, which is reflected from the range of 1.2350.
As discussed in the previous review, traders focused on the peak of August 23, -1.2292, but they were waiting for clear actions after fixing the price higher than 1.2300, which in principle, did not happen.
The news background of the past day contained data on the volume of approved UK mortgage loans, where they expected growth. However, as a result, they got even better indicators of 42.775K ---> 43.342K. I will not say that this indicator is strong in terms of the economic calendar, but due to the lack of any indicators, even such statistics supported the weak pound.
The main impulse for the growth of the British currency came to us from the information background, and so here, the well-known Bloomberg publication in great secret published the news allegedly anonymous sources talking about the fact that the rhetoric of Europe has softened in terms of the Brexit agreement, after a recent tour by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. We are talking about the ill-fated "Backstop"point, but if we recall all Johnson's meetings and their results, there was no progress in them. Thus, the really beloved Bloomberg decided to make money again on his own news, letting the quotes move in the direction he needed. In turn, Boris Johnson had a telephone conversation with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, where he outlined the importance of canceling the back-stop item, otherwise Britain would leave the EU without a deal on October 31. The head of the European Commission indicated his readiness to work with the new Prime Minister and will consider any specific proposals that he may have, provided that they are compatible with the withdrawal agreement. Juncker emphasized that a hard exit would be a rhenium exclusively for Britain, not the EU.
As you and I see, progress is exclusively in terms of the first interactions of the new prime minister, but not in the integrity of solving existing problems. Such media outlets, hype and ambiguous moves will only increase with the onset of autumn, as time is running out, and Britain has so far only one option - exit without an agreement.
Today, unfortunately, the economic calendar is absolutely empty. Thereby, all hope is only on an informational background.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after approaching the coordinates of 1.2300, the quotation felt resistance and, as a fact, slowed down. Traders, in turn, are not in a hurry to rush to action and are waiting for a price fixing higher than 1.2300 (not a puncture), which is to lay long positions. At the same time, selling positions are also being considered in terms of returning to 1.2200.
It is likely to assume that for starters we can see the time amplitude of 1.2250 / 1.2300, where it is possible to analyze trading operations relative to these boundaries. As you already understand, the buy positions that we have repeatedly considered are temporary in nature and can be attributed more to speculation than to strategic plans. Until there is clear clarity regarding the long-playing Brexit, we are considering the worst option, and this is a way out without a deal that does not bring any good.
Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
- We are considering buying positions in the case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.2300, preferably with the next support for the information background. The prospect of a move to 1.2350.
- We are considering selling positions if prices are fixed lower than 1.2250, with the prospect of a move to 1.2200. Further progress is considered after fixing the price lower than 1.2200, with the prospect of 1.2150-1.2080.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators have a rather versatile nature again. Short-term gaps signal an upward interest, although the quote is now in a phase of stagnation and I would not trust them much. On the other hand, the intraday perspective is trying to go down in the recovery phase, while the medium-term outlook remains interesting in the correction phase.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(August 28 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 25 points, which is a low indicator for this time section. It is likely to assume that in the event of another burst of informational background, volatility will increase rapidly, just the current stagnation will help us in this. Otherwise, we will see a sluggish fluctuation within the framework indicated above.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1.3300
Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1,2000; 1.1700; 1.1475 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
