empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
08.09.2023 06:50 PM
The dollar is full of surprises
Open trading account Open demo account

From disappointment to surprise and back again. That's how investor sentiment changes in financial markets. In the first half of the year, the dominant narrative was the looming recession and a sharp slowdown in inflation, which would force the Federal Reserve to make a dovish pivot and weaken the position of the U.S. dollar. But in the summer, investors' perspective shifted. Everywhere you turn, there's talk of a soft landing, as the U.S. economy pleasantly surprised, and the PCE didn't want to decline rapidly. It's interesting to see how an increase in the chances of a hard landing will change the balance of power in the EUR/USD pair.

The dollar has taken a significant slice of the pie, not only thanks to the strength of its labor and real estate markets. For a long time, the U.S. economy appeared to investors as the cleanest shirt in the pile of dirty laundry. Now, they're even saying it doesn't belong in the washing machine. Meanwhile, the eurozone and China continue to disappoint, and the "bears" for EUR/USD don't need to make much effort. The pair is already moving down confidently, thanks to the exceptionalism of the U.S.

Dynamics of business activity in the eurozone and China

This image is no longer relevant

It's hard to imagine what could stop the bears for EUR/USD at this point. Even if the U.S. economy continues to cool down, reigniting discussions of a recession, the weakness of China and Europe will support the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. Let's recall the theory of the dollar smile: the USD index rises when things are going exceptionally well in the United States or when things are going poorly in the world.

Indeed, Beijing's stimulus measures have not yet improved the dire situation. The latest statistics on business activity and foreign trade in China confirm this. So does the continuing decline of the yuan. According to MUFG, if USD/CNY quotes surpass their previous year's peak, the USD index rally will receive a new boost.

Dynamics of the Chinese yuan and the USD index

This image is no longer relevant

Therefore, to stop the bears for EUR/USD, it won't be enough for U.S. macroeconomic statistics to deteriorate. Improvements in the eurozone and China are required. And that currently appears to be quite problematic. The currency bloc is teetering on the brink of stagflation and recession, and the European Central Bank's intention to raise deposit rates further frightens fans of European assets. Beijing is making titanic efforts to save the yuan, but a weak economy cannot sustain a strong currency.

This image is no longer relevant

However, EUR/USD can't continue to fall indefinitely; the pair clearly needs a correction. The ECB meeting scheduled for the week of September 15th could give the bulls some respite. It's worth considering both the possibility of a deposit rate hike to 4% and its maintenance with "hawkish" comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde.

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart of EUR/USD continues the implementation of a corrective pattern called "Three Indians" within the context of a long-term upward trend. This pattern is formed thanks to Wolfe Waves. Prices are heading towards the convergence zone of 1.0485-1.057, from where a rebound is expected. For now, we stick to the strategy of adding to shorts formed from 1.08.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 14th (U.S. Session) The 148.72 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero level, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason
Jakub Novak
17:50 2025-03-14 +02:00
1885
Forecast
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 14th (U.S. Session) The 1.2934 price test coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero level, confirming the validity of the entry point. As a result, the pair declined
Jakub Novak
17:02 2025-03-14 +02:00
1705
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

A New Problem Rises for America – The Debt Ceiling (Expecting #SPX and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Likely Short-Term Recovery)

The confrontation between the U.S. and the EU has entered a new phase. The U.S. president is taking a hardline approach toward Europe, effectively following a "tit for tat" strategy
Pati Gani 14:06 2025-03-14 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is losing ground today. Positive news on U.S.-Canada trade negotiations and reports that Democrats have secured enough votes to prevent a U.S. government shutdown are improving global
Irina Yanina 13:33 2025-03-14 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold is consolidating after reaching a new all-time high. Concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy and its impact on the global economy continue to drive demand
Irina Yanina 10:08 2025-03-14 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday, and none of them are significant. The UK will release reports on GDP and industrial production, but strong figures are not expected
Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-03-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 14: The Last Day of the Week as a Mere Formality

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also began a slight downward correction. While the pound did not depreciate significantly, explaining why it rose for two weeks is difficult. Of course
Paolo Greco 02:39 2025-03-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 14: Maybe That's Enough?

The EUR/USD currency pair finally began to decline on Thursday, but once again, this movement was not linked to macroeconomic factors or fundamental events. It wasn't even related to Donald
Paolo Greco 02:39 2025-03-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD: A Southern Impulse That Should Not Be Trusted

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair reached a three-day low of 1.0823 but did not break into the 1.07 range, as the downward momentum gradually faded. The EUR/USD pair is currently
Irina Manzenko 23:55 2025-03-13 UTC+2

Euro Faces a Potential Coup d'Etat

The Green Party responded to Friedrich Merz's call for a coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats, aimed at abolishing the fiscal brake, with a strong rebuttal: "We don't
Marek Petkovich 23:45 2025-03-13 UTC+2

U.S. Inflation Brings Relief to the Fed but Not to the Markets

The euro and pound showed little reaction to news that consumer prices in the U.S. grew at their slowest pace in four months in February—a welcome sign for American households
Jakub Novak 11:14 2025-03-13 UTC+2

Euro Faces Some Challenges

The European currency has encountered some difficulties in its upward movement following yesterday's speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) President. "The eurozone economy is facing exceptional shocks caused
Jakub Novak 10:39 2025-03-13 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--4
Euro Faces a Potential Coup d'Etat
00:45 2025-03-14
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD and GBP/USD March 14 – Technical Analysis
08:22 2025-03-14
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--4
S&P 500 Forecast for March 14, 2025
04:53 2025-03-14
Stock Markets
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-03-17 UTC--4
US stock market: NASDAQ and SP500 going through correction, 10% down from their historic highs
11:53 2025-03-14
Stock Markets
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-03-17 UTC--4
A New Problem Rises for America – The Debt Ceiling (Expecting #SPX and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Likely Short-Term Recovery)
15:06 2025-03-14
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.