empty
10.10.2023 10:13 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 10th. The Fed plans to be cautious about tightening monetary policy in November

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair on Monday also continued its upward correction, which is based purely on technical reasons. Let's remind you (and it is clearly visible in the illustration above) that the British pound has been falling for more than two months and has lost about 1000 points during this time, which is quite significant. Naturally, after such a decline, an upward correction is required. The CCI indicator entered the oversold zone three times, so the upward movement simply had to start, but even in this case, the market was late in correcting. The dollar offers excellent growth prospects until the end of the year, but a correction is needed in the near future.

Unfortunately, at the moment, we do not see a strong desire among market participants to close short positions. A week ago, the phase of the upward correction ended around the Murray level "6/8" (1.2268). In the last few days, the price approached this level twice and did not attempt to overcome it even once. Therefore, our correction is "ripe," so to speak, but there are concerns that it will be very weak. If the market is not eager to close shorts and open longs, no matter how strong the fundamental and macroeconomic background is, no significant movement will be observed.

The fundamental backdrop, it must be admitted, is currently fully in favor of the dollar. In the article on the euro currency, we noted that the military conflict in Israel is currently not providing support to the dollar, but this conclusion was drawn due to the absence of an increase in the American currency. It is quite possible that some bears are once again pulling the rope in their direction, but they are also contending with the other half of the bears, who are ready to take profits on short positions. In any case, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a positive factor for the American currency.

The Fed may raise rates again, but the market is not yet certain about this. Experts from TD Securities have expressed their views on the possible actions of the Fed at the upcoming meeting. Let's immediately say that this is just one opinion among dozens and hundreds of opinions from similar experts and analysts, so it should not be taken as the ultimate truth. Analysts from this company believe that the Federal Reserve will gather additional data by November to make a decision on the key rate. They are concerned about the rise in yields on US Treasury bonds but note the strength of the labor market. The combination of factors is ambiguous for the regulator because, at the same time, inflation has been rising for two consecutive months and unemployment has risen to 3.8%. Such a level of unemployment is not critical or even high, but it still shows an increase, which is not very good.

We believe that everything will depend on inflation in September. If it turns out that the consumer price index did not slow down in the first month of autumn, or even worse, it increased, then the Fed will go for additional tightening. In favor of a new rate hike is also the fact that the Fed is transitioning to a "+0.25% to the rate/2 meetings" step. The rate was not raised in September, so everything suggests that it will increase in November. Moreover, the labor market continues to show excellent results, no matter what anyone says. Thus, the probability of further monetary policy tightening at the moment is not high, according to various forecasts and instruments, but we believe that in reality, it is higher than 50%.

The Fed still has all the necessary tools to fight inflation, so it would be foolish not to use them. And if the Fed raises rates again by the end of the year, it will be another factor in the growth of the US dollar. By the way, the Bank of England may also raise rates at least once more, but all the tightening measures of the British regulator have long been factored in by the market. We believe that the fundamental background remains fully in favor of the US currency.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 102 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Friday, October 6th, we expect movement within the range of 1.2078 and 1.2282. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will signal a resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2085

S3 – 1.2024

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2207

R2 – 1.2268

R3 – 1.2329

Trading recommendations:

In the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has started a new phase of corrective movement. Therefore, at the moment, it is possible to consider new short positions with targets at 1.2085 and 1.2024 in case the price settles back below the moving average. Long positions can be considered now, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2282 until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses downward.

Explanations for the illustrations:

Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is strong right now.

Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at the moment.

Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

市場混水摸魚

白宮的經濟政策混亂,已經將標普500指數推到了邊緣。這個廣泛的股票指數短暫進入了回調區域,隨後連續兩天上漲。

Marek Petkovich 11:18 2025-03-18 UTC+2

來自中國的正面數據和上升的風險偏好支撐紐幣的看漲前景——NZD/USD 分析

由於 ANX 商品價格指數在 2 月份錄得又一穩健增長,新西蘭元(NZD)又獲得了一個強勁的看漲因素,月環比上升 3.0%,年同比上升 14%。如果貿易戰未波及到新西蘭,該國的貿易平衡將保持持續的貿易順差,有助於國內經濟更快穩定下來並重返增長軌道。

Kuvat Raharjo 10:36 2025-03-18 UTC+2

預期美聯儲會議沒有重大意外(預測歐元/美元急劇下跌及金價持續謹慎增長)

由於美國經濟衰退的風險,市場正經歷動盪。儘管財政部長Bessent試圖通過稱市場的「調整」是一個健康的過程來安撫投資者,但這些擔憂仍未能解決。

Pati Gani 08:48 2025-03-18 UTC+2

3月18日值得關注的事項:新手需知的基本事件解析

週二預定有大量的宏觀經濟事件,但沒有任何一項是重要的。例如,歐元區和德國將公佈ZEW經濟景氣指數,我們認為這不會對交易者產生影響。

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD 匯率概況 – 3月18日:英鎊持續上漲

週一,英鎊兌美元貨幣對繼續傾向增長。整天英國並沒有發生重大事件,而在美國,僅有一份報告發布,但並未導致美元的新一輪下跌。

Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD 匯率概況 – 3 月 18 日:突破結束

EUR/USD 貨幣對已恢復上升勢頭。由於今天幾乎沒有重大新聞,因此波動性保持相當低,阻止歐元出現大幅波動。

Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

美元/日元:分析與預測

隨著全球風險情緒因中國週末公佈的新刺激措施得到改善,日圓在面對美元時持續處於防守狀態,這削弱了對日圓等避險資產的需求。然而,市場對日本央行(BoJ)加息的預期上升,阻止了做空者採取激進的行動。

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

美元/加元:該貨幣對以謹慎的態度開始新的一週

USD/CAD 貨幣對本周以謹慎態度開始,波動於1.4350以上的狹窄範圍內,並保持在50日簡單移動平均線(SMA)之上。然而,基本面因素顯示可能的下行風險。

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

股票投資者是否準備在股市暴跌時買入股票?

遲早會發生任何事情。S&P 500指數在僅僅16個交易日內進入修正區間。

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-03-17 UTC+2

市場將在一段時間內保持低迷狀態(我們預計#Bitcoin和#Litecoin將再度下跌)

全球金融市場仍然受到美國總統政策的嚴重影響,他正在顛覆既有的經濟和地緣政治框架。顯然,這對市場造成了影響。

Pati Gani 09:15 2025-03-17 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.