empty
10.06.2021 09:29 AM
Negotiations over Northern Ireland Protocol postponed until June 30. ECB is set to have a meeting today, but its outcome may not have significant impact on the market.

Euro and pound declined on the news that negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol have been postponed until June 30. Apparently, the two parties are having a difficult time agreeing on some conditions, so Britain said it is considering the possibility of unilateral action to ensure a smooth flow of supplies from the UK to the region. Meanwhile, Europe said its patience is running out and described relations with UK as "uncertain", which escalated fears that a trade war may happen.

This image is no longer relevant

During the press conference, EU said they were disappointed that UK did not comply with the terms signed in the Brexit deal. They added that if the UK takes unilateral action in the coming weeks, they will not hesitate to respond "quickly, firmly and decisively."

Earlier, EU declared it would file lawsuits against UK, or increase tariffs on meat products and other goods. According to them, the UK had enough time to express concerns about the agreement, but they did not do so.

UK, on the other hand, said there has been no significant progress on simplified health regulations and certifications that would have avoided more than half of the additional checks currently being conducted by EU customs.

The deadlock put strong pressure on both euro and pound, but fortunately pound remained in the sideways channel, which means that buyers can open long positions after a brief decline to 1.4085, or after a rise to 1.4140 channel. Doing so will push the quote towards 1.4190. Meanwhile, an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 1.4140 will open an opportunity for sellers to enter new short positions, and such will set off a drop to 1.4085. Then, a further decline will push the quote towards 1.4040 and 1.4000.

EUR / USD

The European Central Bank will meet today, but its outcome is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, as earlier statements of ECB officials have lowered expectations for an early rate hike and cutback on bond purchases.

Most likely, the ECB will focus on their concerns about the unpredictable impact of the coronavirus, drawing attention to the uneven economic recovery and high unemployment. There is also a huge chance that it will ignore inflation, as the central bank has been following the actions of the Federal Reserve lately. Moreover, the EU economy is lagging far behind the United States, so the ECB will probably take a wait-and-see attitude and not rush to change decisions at the first signs of inflationary pressures.

One of the reasons why EU is lagging behind US is the delayed vaccination programs due to limited supply. New strains of the virus are also threatening the region, so officials are having a hard time implementing aggressive changes.

In view of this, IMF called on G7 countries to provide funds for vaccine production. Last month, they proposed a $ 50 billion spending plan to help immunize people from COVID-19, claiming that it would help avoid a scenario in which emerging economies recover much slower than developed countries.

This image is no longer relevant

In terms of macro statistics, exports in some areas of Europe, Germany for example, showed continued growth, albeit slightly slower. Destasis said the data for April was up by 0.3% month-over-month, while imports fell 1.7%. Trade surplus also rose to € 15.9 billion.

With regards to euro, a lot depends on 1.2185 today because a break above it will lead to a further jump towards 1.2215 and 1.2250. Meanwhile, a plunge below 1.2150 will push the quote down to 1.2100.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

天然氣市場情況的最新消息

天然氣市場正在經歷顯著且穩定的增長,考慮到最近的事件,這並不令人驚訝。 根據最近的報告,在即將卸任的拜登政府對Gazprom實施數項制裁後,美國在巨大的政治壓力下,允許與幾家俄羅斯公司進行業務往來,包括Gazprom Nelfproject、Rosnefteflot、Sovcomflot以及Gazprom Neft。

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:37 2025-01-17 UTC+2

美元/日元:分析與預測

日圓下跌,回吐了其本週對美元的強勁漲幅。以色列與哈馬斯的停火協議,以及股市的正面情緒,削弱了對包括日圓在內的傳統避險資產的需求。

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-01-17 UTC+2

歐元/日圓: 分析與預測

今天,歐元/日元對正在試圖吸引買家,在160.00的心理關口略微上方交易。 然而,由於日本央行(BoJ)和歐洲央行(ECB)之間的貨幣政策前景存在分歧,此次上漲缺乏看漲信心。

Irina Yanina 11:32 2025-01-17 UTC+2

比特幣揭開派對序幕

在唐納德·特朗普即將就職之際,比特幣似乎準備迎接一場慶祝性的漲勢,這位當選總統承諾將美國打造成全球的加密貨幣中心。來自彭博社的內部消息顯示,特朗普計劃在美國政策中優先考慮數字資產。

Marek Petkovich 08:20 2025-01-17 UTC+2

1月17日要注意什麼?初學者的基本事件解析

週五有多項宏觀經濟事件排定,但都不是特別重要。目前,兩個貨幣對都正經歷相對高的波動性,這表明宏觀經濟背景不是市場波動的主要驅動因素。

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-01-17 UTC+2

1月17日英鎊/美元匯率概覽:英鎊短暫上升,通脹無助力

英鎊/美元貨幣對在星期四持續下跌。與歐元相似,該下跌趨勢在星期三晚上有效地開始並持續到星期四。

Paolo Greco 05:38 2025-01-17 UTC+2

1月17日歐元/美元概況:另一階段的修正完成,朝平價邁進

歐元/美元貨幣對在星期四恢復了向下的趨勢,再次跌破了移動平均線。實際下跌始於星期三晚間。

Paolo Greco 05:38 2025-01-17 UTC+2

歐元/美元:陷入橫向趨勢

該貨幣對仍處於區間波動,沿著狹窄的價格走廊移動。買家在1.03水平上難以建立穩固的地位,而賣方則無法將該貨幣對推低至1.02水平。

Irina Manzenko 23:46 2025-01-16 UTC+2

歐元顯示出其困境

期望成功卻被弱點所拖累——美國12月份核心通脹率放緩至0.2%環比,引發了大規模的風險性上漲。股票市場自總統大選以來表現最為強勁,美國國債收益率大幅下降,比特幣一度短暫突破10萬。

Marek Petkovich 14:15 2025-01-16 UTC+2

USD/CAD:該對握有來自多個因素的支援

美元/加元貨幣對在今天顯示出積極的動能,從1.4300水平反彈-這是一個接近周低點的程度,並在歐洲交易時段的上半場持續其日內向上的移動。 這種向上的趨勢是由一組因素支持的。

Irina Yanina 12:40 2025-01-16 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.