GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair also began a powerful downward movement on Thursday and the ADP report was also published during the US trading session, which showed growth in the number of employees in the private sector by almost 1 million, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts. The US dollar was supported by other reports from overseas. However, during the European trading session, the pair, on the contrary, traded with an increase, and did not react to the British reports. Moreover, the price was happy to generate false signals throughout the day. Let's deal with this tricky trading on Thursday. The first signal or its semblance formed near the Senkou Span B. However, to be honest, it was not very similar to a signal. The price did not rebound or cross this line and traded along it for almost three hours. So this "signal" could be ignored. This was followed by a no less "excellent" signal near the critical line, but here at least the price clearly crossed the line, so long positions should have been opened, even despite the release of business activity indices in the UK, to which the pair reacted with an increase in points by 10. This signal to buy turned out to be false, but the price could not close below the critical line for a long time, so traders had to manually close the deal before the beginning of the US session, when a number of reports were scheduled to be published. At that time, no one knew yet how strong the statistics would turn out, and the price was trying to close below the critical line. The numbers "2" and "3" show the time when reports from ADP and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits were published. It was at this time that two more signals were formed near the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, which should have been filtered out, since the price could move in any direction. But the next sell signal in the form of a breakthrough of the Senkou Span B line could already be worked out with a short position, which brought around 32 to 43 points of profit, depending on where the deal was closed, near the level of 1.4112 or 1.4101. Initially, there was a rebound from the level of 1.4101, however, this signal clearly should not have been worked out, since an hour later Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech began, and it was already approaching evening. Not the best day for trading, many events and signals, but still managed to get a small profit.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 4. The Beige Book showed the optimism of all 12 US Federal Reserve Banks. Doubts about the rate of recovery of the labor market.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, the British pound fell to the lower border of the horizontal channel 1.4100 - 1.4220 on Thursday. Thus, the quotes still remain within this channel, that is, they can resume the upward movement at any time. Moreover, the channel has no clear boundaries. Previously, the price had already dropped to 1.4090, after which it started a new round of upward movement within the horizontal channel. Therefore, there is no need to jump to conclusions. In technical terms, at this time, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.4008, 1.4080, 1.4101 and 1.4219. Senkou Span B (1.4161) and Kijun-sen (1.4172) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. In the UK, only one PMI in the construction sector will be published on Friday, which is unlikely to provoke a reaction from the markets. But two major reports on Nonfarm and unemployment will be released in America, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. It is quite possible that today will be a very volatile day.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair increased by 10 points during the last reporting week (May 18-24). However, in general, the pound continues to rise in price, which is clearly visible on any long-term timeframe. Major market players continue to generally increase long positions, which provides an additional incentive to the British currency. The group of "non-commercial" traders (the most important group) opened only 936 Buy contracts (longs), but at the same time closed 4,700 Sell contracts (shorts) in the reporting week. And so the net position increased again, by more than 5,000 contracts, which means much more for the pound than for the euro. The mood of professional traders has again become a little more bullish, but in the medium term, it is absolutely impossible to say that large players are constantly increasing longs or closing shorts. The second indicator in the chart above, which shows the change in the net position for a group of "non-commercial" traders, shows that big players started to actively built up longs around February, but by mid-March their number began to decline, and has been approximately at the same level since the beginning of April. Thus, the pound continues to rise in price completely out of proportion to the bullish mood of non-commercial traders. Therefore, we continue to believe that the pair is much more influenced by the fact that hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars are infused into the US economy than the actions of major market players. However, most likely, the effect of these two factors is multiplied by each other, which leads to an even stronger result. In our case, the pound continues to grow when it should have fallen to the 30 figure, if the fundamental background from the UK was even slightly taken into account.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
