To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning review, I paid attention to the level of 1.1715 and recommended actions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze all the entry points: it is clear that after the bears' unsuccessful attempt to break below the support of 1.1715, a false breakout is formed, which leads to the formation of a good entry point into long positions. After some time, the bulls achieve a return to the resistance area of 1.1753, which brings about 35 points of profit. Given that the volatility is quite low and we have not left the side channel, which we have been in since the morning, the technical picture remains the same.

The data on the eurozone was not surprising, however, the bulls took advantage of good indicators on activity in the manufacturing sector and growth in retail trade in Germany, which led to another resistance test of 1.1753. Only fixing above this range with a top-down test forms a good signal to open long positions in the continuation of the upward correction of the euro already in the area of the maximum of 1.1791, where I recommend fixing the profits. The next target will be the area of 1.1842, but its test will lead to a break in the bear market, which we observed all last month. In the second half of the day, production figures for the US economy are released, which may return pressure on the pair. In this case, the optimal scenario for opening long positions will be the next formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1715. If the bulls are no longer active, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of new local lows of 1.1682 and 1.1643, from where you can open long positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The main task of sellers is to break through and consolidate below the level of 1.1715 since only in this case the downward trend in the EUR/USD pair will continue. The test of 1.1715 from the bottom up will form an excellent signal for opening short positions, and the nearest target in this case will be the support of 1.1682. The further level, where I recommend taking the profit, is seen in the area of 1.1643. If the data on the US economy is not particularly surprising, it is possible that the upward correction in the pair will continue and we will see a repeat test of the resistance of 1.1753. In this case, I recommend not to rush with short positions: the optimal scenario is the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.1753, which will lead to the formation of a signal to open short positions. You can sell the pair immediately for a rebound only from a larger high of 1.1791, counting on a downward movement of 20-25 points within the day.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 23, the indicators of long and short positions practically did not change, which indicates a clear lack of those who want to buy euros in the short term. The delta's rise was due to a slight decline in short positions, rather than an influx of new buyers. Traders' attention is now focused on the problems with the EU's vaccination program and the red tape in implementing the recovery fund – these will be the main reason for the weak growth of the eurozone economy after the COVID-19 pandemic this year, making it more lagging compared to other developed countries. This is also reflected in the exchange rate of the European currency, which continues to lose its position against the US dollar. For this reason, the market remains on the side of sellers of risky assets, which can lead to further formation of a downward trend. In the event of another round of growth in the yield of ten-year US bonds, the position of the US dollar will only strengthen.

Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. At the moment, it is best not to rush into buying euros but to wait for lower prices. Another factor in the medium-term pressure on the euro is the fact that many European countries are in a state of quarantine due to the coronavirus. The recent curtailment of social distancing measures has led to new outbreaks of disease among the population, forcing many governments to revert to previous measures. Only after the lifting of restrictions and the restoration of the service sector can we expect an improvement in the economic prospects of the eurozone, which will return the medium-term trend to the strengthening of the EUR/USD. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions fell to 195,500 from 195,857, while short non-profit positions fell even further from 105,881 to 102,178. As a result, the total non-profit net position broke its five-week downward trend and rose slightly to the level of 93,332 from the level of 89,976. The weekly closing price was 1.1932 against 1.1926 a week earlier.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by buyers to build a good upward correction.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1750 will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1715 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.