empty
30.08.2019 09:19 AM
Trade war drags the US and China into the abyss (high risks of continuing the fall of AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs)

The mood on world markets improved slightly again amid confirmation of reports that US-Chinese trade negotiations had indeed resumed. But is it really worth taking this news seriously?

Investors continue to show their high expectations and hopes regarding the achievement of a new trade agreement between Washington and Beijing and an end to the customs duties war. However, the issue of agreement remains open. Everything that happens around this topic does not really resemble any local trade contradictions, but Washington's real aspirations, using measures of economic influence - customs duties, claims against major Chinese companies like Huawei, as well as obvious political pressure manifested in the use of the rhetoric that China is the main geopolitical enemy of the United States, trying to restrain the growth of China's economic and geopolitical dominance.

Given just such a subtext of the trade war, and it just begs, it can be said that an agreement can only be achieved if either one of the parties openly wins this confrontation, or when they are so weakened by the struggle that they will be forced to go to broad compromises.

Such difficult prospects will not bring anything good to the financial markets, as they will plague investors with their uncertainty and high financial risks. For China, this threatens a fall in income from trade with America, and for the States, the risk of higher inflation, which, given the prospects for a falling economic growth, will replace the era of its stagnation with a steady period of high inflation. In this case, in the event of falling American incomes and high import tariffs, investment activity will slow down. The status of the dollar as a world reserve currency will gradually melt, and with it the attractiveness of the dollar.

But, despite such a pessimistic view, these are still distant prospects, if the confrontation between Washington and Beijing does not end at a peculiar red line, beyond which lies the abyss.

In the meantime, in our opinion, the parties believe that they still have gunpowder to fight each other. The tug of war will continue, which will be a good reason for high volatility in the markets, accompanied by sharp changes in moods from positive to negative and vice versa. In this situation, the US dollar will maintain approximately its current position, since its real decline against major currencies will be compensated, in turn, by weakening of their exchange rates by the national Central Bank. It seems to us that this situation will continue in the short term.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair remains in a short-term downward trend amid the trade war between the United States and China. We expect its decline to continue to 0.6675.

The NZDUSD pair also remains hostage to the trade crisis between the United States and China. We believe that the pair will continue to decline to 0.6245.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

CFTC 報告:投資者積極平倉美元多頭頭寸

美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)週五發布的報告顯示,出現了意外強烈的拋售美元傾向,美元相對於主要貨幣的投機性多頭頭寸總量減少了82億美元,降至154億美元。 最顯著的變動發生在日圓和歐元上,這兩種貨幣的持倉對美元的增幅均超過30億美元。

Kuvat Raharjo 12:01 2025-03-03 UTC+2

USD/JPY:分析與預測

受日本央行(BoJ)鹰派预期的支持,日元继续在美元面前保持着坚挺姿态。投资者正在权衡进一步加息的可能性,这反过来支持了日本国债(JGBs)的更高收益率,并加强了日元的实力。

Irina Yanina 11:56 2025-03-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD 匯率概覽 – 3月3日。英鎊:好景不常

週五,英鎊兌美元貨幣對表現走低,但目前英鎊的跌勢仍然相對較弱。從技術上講,上行修正可能仍會繼續。

Paolo Greco 05:08 2025-03-03 UTC+2

歐元/美元匯率概覽 – 3月3日。歐元在歐洲央行會議前走低

在週五,歐元/美元貨幣對在未能再次突破1.0525水準後,繼續下行。這一水平作為日內時間框架的橫向通道上邊界。

Paolo Greco 05:07 2025-03-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD。 三月第一周:美國供應管理協會指數、歐元區通脹、歐洲央行會議、二月非農就業報告

三月的第一週預示著將會充滿事件,尤其是對於歐元/美元(EUR/USD)貨幣對來說,預計會有重大進展。美國將發布關鍵的勞動力市場報告和ISM指數,這些都是經濟增長的重要指標。

Irina Manzenko 04:33 2025-03-03 UTC+2

3 月 3 日應該關注什麼?新手必看的基本事件解析

週一安排了大量的宏觀經濟事件,這意味著經濟報告將對貨幣對產生極大影響。英國、德國、歐盟及美國將發布製造業的商業活動指數。

Paolo Greco 01:43 2025-03-03 UTC+2

美元/加元:這對貨幣將會在多週高點附近繼續上漲嗎?

美元/加元(USD/CAD)貨幣對持續數日上漲,目前仍接近多週高點,這一勢頭的延續得益於突破50日簡單移動平均線(SMA)。在亞洲交易時段,現匯價格達到約1.4450–1.4455的近四週高點,主要受到市場對美元需求回升的推動。

Irina Yanina 10:49 2025-02-28 UTC+2

美國經濟滯脹風險重新浮現(比特幣可能下跌,#USDX 可能上升)

早前的報導指出,美國總統已決定將對加拿大和墨西哥的關稅實施日期從3月4日推遲至4月2日,這暫時為全球金融市場帶來了一絲緩解。然而,昨日的消息再次在市場中引起震動。

Pati Gani 09:34 2025-02-28 UTC+2

股市投降認輸

禍不單行。隨著唐納德·特朗普重新點燃了關稅威脅,標普500指數下跌至1月中旬以來的最低點。

Marek Petkovich 08:49 2025-02-28 UTC+2

2月28日該關注什麼?新手必看的基本事件分析

週五的經濟日程安排滿滿的活動,但沒有任何特別重要的事件。在德國,將公佈關於失業率、通脹和零售銷售的報告。

Paolo Greco 06:52 2025-02-28 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.