Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.45 level took place when the MACD indicator had not even moved into negative territory yet, so relying on selling from this level was challenging. For this reason, I did not open short positions against the upward trend, and I was right. In the second half of the day, Rafael Bostic, Lorie K. Logan, Thomas Barkin, and Philip N. Jefferson will deliver speeches. These representatives of the Federal Reserve System could help the dollar return to growth through their statements, significantly weakening the yen's position. If there is no market reaction to their comments, the remaining potential for a spike in volatility will come from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act according to the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 148.84 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 149.46 level (thicker green line on the chart). At the 149.46 level, I will exit my purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pair today can only be expected if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 148.45 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward trend reversal. A rise toward the opposing levels of 148.84 and 149.46 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 148.45 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.94 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the Fed's representatives adopt a dovish stance. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 148.84 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 148.45 and 147.94 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the suggested price for setting a take profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the suggested price for setting a take profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to use the MACD indicator's overbought and oversold areas as a guide.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use risk management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I have provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.