To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In the first half of the day, I paid attention to the support of 1.2187 and recommended that it make decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points. It is visible how the bears make an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate below this range, which leads to the formation of a signal to open long positions. There was no rapid growth of the pair, and only after the test of the level of 1.2187, the buy signal was confirmed. At the time of writing, the upward movement was about 20 points and slowed down, which indicates that no people are willing to open long positions in the euro after today's vague fundamental data, which did not surprise traders.

From a technical point of view, nothing much changed in the afternoon. The nearest support and resistance levels were only slightly shifted. The main task of the euro buyers is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2213, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. Only a test of this level from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions with the pair's recovery to the area of the maximum of 1.2249, where I recommend taking the profit. A more distant target will be the area of 1.2283. However, we will be able to break through to it only after the data on the US labor market and the composite PMI index. If the reports do not disappoint traders and the data exceeds economists' forecasts, the pressure on the euro may return. In this case, a more optimal scenario for building up long positions is forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2179, where you can still buy the euro, only if a false breakout is formed by analogy with the signal that I analyzed above. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after updating the week's low in the area of 1.2155 with the aim of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day. The next major support is seen only in the area of 1.2134.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The bears will continue to struggle to continue the downward correction that they formed yesterday in the first half of the day. However, it was quickly recouped during the US session. The initial task remains to protect the resistance of 1.2213, where yesterday, the growth of the euro was limited. Only the formation of a false breakout will form a new sell signal for EUR/USD to expect a further decline in the pair. Strong data on the US services sector will put pressure on the pair, which will lead to a decline in the support area of 1.2179 in the afternoon. A breakout and a test of this range from the bottom up form an additional entry point into short positions already in the expectation of an exit to the minimum of 1.2155, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target is the support of 1.2134. In the absence of bear activity in the area of 1.2213, I recommend postponing sales until the resistance update of 1.2249, where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. The next major resistance passes only at a new local maximum in the area of 1.2283.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for May 25 shows an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, which indicates an increase in demand for the European currency before the start of the last month of the second quarter of this year. It is expected that the European economy will show particularly strong growth in the summer, which will lead to new growth of the European currency in the area of annual highs. Data on the growth rate of the US economy in the 1st quarter of 2021 did not particularly surprise last week, which led to continued pressure on the US dollar. Traders now perceive any strong movements of the EUR/USD pair as an excellent opportunity to gain long positions in the continuation of the bull market. Only the news that the Fed is seriously going to reduce the volume of bond purchases will lead to a serious increase in the US dollar. However, we will know about this only by mid-June. Up to this point, every time the pair declines, the demand for risky assets will return. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped from 232,330 to the level of 236,103, while short non-profit positions fell from the level of 132,472 to the level of 132,103. It indicates an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of sellers.

Given that the pair has been standing at local highs for quite a long time, the bulls accumulate long positions. However, the sellers are gradually getting rid of the euro. It indicates a possible breakdown of monthly highs in the near future and the continuation of the euro's growth. The total non-profit net position increased from 99,858 to 104,000. The weekly closing price also increased from the level of 1.21564 to 1.22142.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bears to control the market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a downward movement, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2185 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.