Surprises continue. What's next? Here's a comprehensive analysis of movement options of the main currency instruments – #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (DAILY) on March 19, 2020.
Minor operational scale (Daily time frame)
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US dollar index
The movement of the dollar index #USDX from March 19, 2020 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range:
- resistance level of 100.85 at the upper boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks;
- support level of 100.35 on the final line FSL of the Minuette operational scale forks.
In the event of the breakdown of the final line FSL (support level of 100.35) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, the development of the movement of the dollar index will be directed towards the goals:
- 1/2 Median Line Minor (99.75);
- final Schiff Line Minuette (99.15);
- lower boundary of ISL38.2 (98.65) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks;
with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.30 - 97.70 - 97.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks
On the contrary, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (resistance level of 100.85) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks will lead to the option to continue the development of an upward movement #USDX to end Line Schiff Minor (101.70) and the control line UTL (102.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
The markup of #USDX movement options on March 19, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from March 19, 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 1.1000 on the reaction line RL23.6 of the Minor operational scale forks;
- support level of 1.0921 on the control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks.
If a breakdown of the RL23.6 Minor reaction line (resistance level of 1.1000) takes place, it will become possible to develop an upward movement of the single European currency to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (1.1170 - 1.1295 - 1.1425) of the Minor operational scale forks.
When the LTL control line (support level of 1.0921) breaks the Minuette operational scale forks, the option to continue the downward movement of EUR / USD to the targets:
- initial SSL Minor line (1.0790);
- control line LTL Minor (1.0750);
with the prospect of reaching the warning line LWL38.2 Minor (1.0415).
The details of the EUR / USD movement options from March 19, 2020 are shown in the animated chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
From March 19, 2020, Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency will continue to move depending on the range that was developed :
- resistance level of 1.1950 on the control line LTL of the Minor operational scale forks;
- support level of 1.1750 on the control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks.
In case of breakdown of the control line LTL (resistance level of 1.1950) of the Minor operational scale forks, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement can continue to the SSL Minor start line (1.2290) and the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2390 - 1.2580 - 1.2780) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
Alternatively, if the control line LTL (support level of 1.1757) of the Minuette operational scale forks is broken, then the downward movement of GBP / USD can be continued to the warning - LWL38.2 (1.1670) and LWL61.8 (1.1300) to lines of the Minor operational scale forks.
The details of the GBP / USD movement on March 19, 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.
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US dollar vs Japanese yen
The development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from March 19, 2020 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of l-band :
- resistance level of 108.30 at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale forks;
- support level of 107.65 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks.
With the breakdown of the resistance level of 108.30, the development of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.30 - 109.40 - 110.60) of the Minor operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (111.66) and maximum (112.25).
On the other hand, the breakdown of the support level 107.65, the USD / JPY movement will occur in the 1/2 Median Line channel (107.65 - 106.35 - 105.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks with a prospect of reaching the control line Minor LTL (104.40) and the warning line Minor LWL38.2 (102.90)
The details of the USD / JPY movement on March 19, 2020 is presented on the animated chart.
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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index :
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
