4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 36.9789

The British pound continues to show a modest strengthening against the US currency. Despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics from the United States in recent weeks is not encouraging, the pound has not been able to show significant growth, unlike, for example, the euro. This difference in the reaction of traders depending on the pair eloquently shows that the demand for the pound remains extremely weak, and the current trend is very difficult to call an upward one. Traders are waiting, or not even waiting, for optimistic messages from the UK. And if they start coming in, then they will probably be ready to move on to serious purchases of the pound. In the UK itself, the debate continues about the future of the Prime Minister of the country. According to most experts, the new leader will be Boris Johnson. It seems that Johnson himself also appreciates his chances of winning regularly speaks to the media. His last statement concerned what Donald Trump had already said earlier. The UK may refuse to pay the EU a fine for withdrawal from the Alliance in the amount of $50 billion. According to Johnson, this fine London will have to pay if the UK gets a more favorable agreement on the "soft" Brexit. That is, there will be a revision of the current version of the "deal" reached by Theresa May. This means that in the future, London is waiting for new negotiations with the EU. This scenario is again negative for the pound sterling. First, new negotiations could drag on for months. Secondly, the European Union, even if it agrees to sit down again at the negotiating table, is unlikely to make serious concessions. Third, Parliament will continue to reject options for an agreement with the EU if there are no significant changes in favor of the UK. This could potentially delay the Brexit process not only for months but also for years.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2665

S3 – 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.272

R2 – 1.2756

R3 – 1.2787

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of downward correction, which in the next few days may grow into a new downward trend. Thus, buying the pound in small lots with the targets at 1.2756 and 1.2787 formally remain relevant now, if the pair rebounds from the MA.

It is recommended to buy the US dollar after fixing the pound/dollar pair below the moving average line with the first targets at 1.2634 and 1.2604. In this case, the bears will again take over the initiative on the currency market for GBP/USD.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.