AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar against the growth of European currencies fell by 30 points. The pessimism was influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement on the growth of political and economic risks, high lending to households, cooling mortgages, and undesirability of the high exchange rate of the national currency for the economy. But this morning, the excellent GDP data for the first quarter came out. The economic growth was 1.0% vs. the forecast of 0.8% and the annual growth estimate was 3.1% vs. the forecast of 2.8%. As part of the GDP, household consumption increased by 0.3% q/q. Capital expenditures increased by 0.5% in the quarter against -0.9% in the fourth quarter.

But tomorrow, the trade balance for April will be published and projected to lower the balance from 1.52 billion dollars to 1.00 billion. On the same day, the US consumer lending data is expected to increase from 11.6 billion dollars to 13.9 billion. In a week, the Fed will take a decision on monetary policy with a high probability that the rate will be raised. Typically, pressures from the media and the preparation of markets begins one week before the FOMC meeting. We are waiting for the decline of the Australian currency to 0.7570.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.