The Swiss National Bank seems to have decided to follow the example of other major world central banks in their move towards tighter monetary policy conditions. Following the results of the meeting, the Swiss National Bank raised the interest rate on deposits to -0.25%, thereby surprising investors and economists who expected the interest rate to remain at the same level of -0.75%.
The franc strengthened sharply after the publication (at 07:30 GMT) of the SNB's decision on the interest rate, and the USD/CHF pair fell by 94 points, to a local 4-day low of 0.9783.
An accompanying statement from the SNB said that "tighter monetary policy aims to prevent inflation from spreading more widely in Switzerland." At the same time, the bank reserves the right to "intervene in the markets in order to stop the excessive strengthening or weakening of the Swiss franc."
The SNB meeting took place after the Fed meeting ended on Wednesday. As is already known, Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points at once, which exceeded market expectations of a 0.50% increase. They also signaled further tightening of monetary policy, including more aggressive measures if the situation calls for it.
"When choosing a suitable position in monetary policy, the committee will continue to monitor the impact of incoming information on the economic outlook. The committee will be ready to adapt monetary policy appropriately as risks arise for the committee's goals," the Fed said.
Now the updated forecast assumes an increase in the key rate to 3.4% by the end of the year, which is still 1.65% below the current level of 1.75%.
It is obvious that the world's largest central banks are seriously concerned about the accelerating inflation. Thus, in the US it reached the level of 8.6% in May, and in the Eurozone at 8.1% (in annual terms).
Today, market participants will follow the course of the meeting of the Bank of England. Its interest rate decision will be published at 11:00 (GMT). Last week, economists predicted that the BoE would not make changes to the parameters of the current monetary policy. Now, this forecast suggests that the leaders of the BoE will still decide to raise the interest rate (up to 1.25% from 1.00%), despite a number of negative macro data indicating a slowdown in the British economy.
But this week, another of the world's largest central banks is holding its regular monetary policy meeting. At 03:00 (GMT) on Friday, the Bank of Japan will publish its interest rate decision.
The yen has been strengthening in recent days. Does this mean that investors expect decisive action from the Bank of Japan and a tightening of its monetary policy?
Demand for the yen has risen again, but so far this must be attributed to the desire of investors to avoid risks—one has only to look at the rapid fall in the US and world stock indices, and the yen, as you know, has the status of a protective asset.
Despite the fact that Fed officials yesterday sharply raised interest rates and announced the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy, including by aggressive methods, the USD/JPY pair (after reaching a new multi-year high of 135.58 on Tuesday, which exceeds the record level of 135.19 reached in January 2002 year) today, just like other major currency pairs with the yen, is declining.
As of this writing, it is trading near 132.58. The price broke through the important short-term support level 133.44, making a kind of request for further decline.
In general, this week turned out to be extremely volatile, and as we noted above, the publication of the decision of the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan on rates is still ahead, as well as 2 American trading sessions—today, when the weekly data from the American labor market will be published, and tomorrow, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell starts his speech at 12:45 (GMT). Obviously, the volatility in the market will remain until the end of tomorrow's trading day.
