For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require adjustments. The downward section of the trend continues its construction within the framework of wave E-E, and its internal wave marking looks quite difficult - correction waves are practically not viewed in it, so it is very difficult to determine which internal wave is being built now. Presumably, wave 3-e-E. Thus, the wave e-E will not be shortened. Demand for the British continues to fall, and wave e already looks quite long. However, this wave is the last wave of the current downtrend segment. The entire site is either nearing completion of its construction, or it will have to take a much more complex and extended form. Everything will depend in the coming weeks on the news background, which is now clearly divided into geopolitical and economic. The military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, according to many military analysts, may persist not just for months, but for years. The consequences for the European and British economies will be serious. From an economic point of view, the Bank of England looks weaker in its desire to tighten the PEPP than the Fed. But still, these two factors cannot permanently lower the demand for the pound.The US GDP was disappointed, but the British did not grow because of it.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 120 basis points on April 29. Thus, both of the instruments I am considering rose identically on Friday. From my point of view, this suggests that the market simply recorded a profit on sales of both instruments. Because of this, there was a pullback upward, which in both cases can be a corrective wave, after which the main movement will resume. On Friday, there was no such news background that the pound began to be sharply in demand and gained 120 points. Thus, I believe that the decline in quotes will resume next week, and now we need to rely on the wave markup in the first place.
Next week, there will be a meeting of the British Central Bank, at which, according to analysts, it will announce the fourth consecutive increase in the interest rate, again by 0.25%. If everything was in order with geopolitics now, then I would not doubt that the demand for the British will grow after this decision is made. But at this time, when the Bank of England has already raised the rate three times, and the pound has been falling and falling, I am not at all sure that the market will be happy with the fourth increase. Nevertheless, I admit that the end of next week, when in addition to the meeting of the Bank of England, the Nonfarm Payrolls report in the USA will be released, will be very hot. And the market will not be able to stay away from these events. However, I believe that there is still more chance of a further decline in the British dollar than the completion of the entire downward section of the trend.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the construction of wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.2246 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down". However, I don't see a pound below this mark yet. From my point of view, the construction of a downward trend section is nearing its completion, but this assumption requires at least one confirmation.
On the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, I still expect a continuation of the decline of the instrument with targets located around the 22nd figure. Wave E takes on a five-wave appearance but still doesn't look fully equipped. However, it already takes a little time to complete the complete set.
