Holidays are coming and bulls are starting to show more activity. Bitcoin manages to reverse the downtrend from November 10. There were a lot of prerequisites both for bullish rally and a decline towards $42,000-$45,000. However, the digital asset could break out of the wide trading range and is likely to continue rising towards $69,000.
Similar to 2019
In this paragraph I would like to draw your attention to the New Year's holiday and the market's reaction to it. On the weekly time frame, the BTC price moves as it was moving in 2019. The digital asset was in consolidation after a correction. The market was dominated by bears at the time, which was reflected in the red weekly candlesticks. However, a strong bullish candle was formed between December 17 and December 24. Subsequently, Bitcoin failed to break an important resistance level and the price dropped back into the trading range. However, this case indicates that one should not underestimate the holiday periods.
Bullish end of 2021
Let's get back to the end of 2021. Bitcoin, contrary to many expectations, rebounded from support and made a confident bullish breakthrough of two key resistances. The first resistance is located at $49,700 and the second one is at $50,800. The level of $50,000 was also a difficult psychological level for the sellers. Thanks to such a confident rally, BTC/USD quotations grew by 5.5% during the day. The altcoin market is also in the green, which is a bullish signal and reflects investors' desire to buy cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin finished the downtrend according to the classic scenario with a powerful bullish breakout of massive sales clusters. Good buying volumes did appear on the market, but a significant part of BTC growth can be explained by bearish expectations. A significant amount of short positions was closed above $50,000, as bears hoped for a further decline. At the same time, Bitcoin has accumulated buying volumes, which are not enough yet to reach highs, and therefore there is an assumption that the big bulls are still acting passively. We'd like to be wrong, but Bitcoin needs to fix at the current levels and continue to go upwards.
Main events ahead
The digital asset needs to continue its upward movement above $51,200 and $52,000 to prove the bullish breakout and growing bullish strength. In the near future, I expect a fierce fight for the upper boundary of the sideways trading range at $52,000. If the price breaks through this range it is possible to speak about full completion of corrective and sideways movement. I assume that over the weekend the situation is likely to be resolved. Technical indicators show a positive sentiment and support this scenario: the MACD indicator shows an upward trend and targets at the zero mark, and the stochastic oscillator and the relative strength index indicate that the strength of the upward momentum and growth of buying volumes is preserved.
Forecast for the weekend
The intraday situation remains bullish: the price has moved into the $49,000-$52,000 range and started to experience sellers' pressure as it approaches the upper boundary of the channel. This suggests the need for consolidation and a local period of accumulation. I assume the price to decline to the support zone in the middle of the impulse candlestick near $50,000. Subsequently, the price may make the same impulse bounce and reach $52,000. This scenario is a priority, as the cluster of purchases above $51,000 is not formed, and therefore the quotations can decrease beyond this boundary. In general, I expect the end of the current trading week with bullish sentiment above the sideways range. Bitcoin is unlikely to finish the year above the all-time high, but the asset may get closer to it.
