GBP/USD 5M
The pound/dollar pair was moving quite actively on September 14. At least, this is the impression, judging by the chart of the 5-minute timeframe. In fact, yesterday's volatility amounted to about 110 points, which is a "normal" value for the pound/dollar pair. And this despite the fact that yesterday at least three important reports were published in the UK and one in the United States. Thus, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the key factor, from our point of view. The factor is the volatility that is not too high. The weak volatility (in most cases) greatly complicates the trading process. Yesterday in Britain the statistics were much better than forecasts. We analyzed it in detail in our fundamental articles. However, after the publication of reports on unemployment, wages and claims for unemployment benefits, the pound rose by 50 points. After the publication of a weak report on inflation in the US - by another 60. It would seem that pretty good moves, and there was a reaction from the markets. But in the late afternoon, the pair collapsed by 110 points for no reason, offsetting all the progress of the day. The movements, nevertheless, were quite good and could have been good money for if at least one noteworthy trading signal had been formed during the day. By and large, there was only one. There was a signal to sell during the US trading session, when the pair had settled below the extremum level of 1.3886. It was this signal that had to be worked out with a short position, which eventually brought from 30 to 70 points of profit. But the first buy signal should have been ignored, since it was generated right during the publication of the US inflation report. And there were no signals during the European trading session.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 15. US inflation has not given a clear answer to the main question.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 15. Scotland is still talking about an independence referendum.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair left the rising channel on the hourly timeframe, but at the same time it could not continue the downward movement, and instead it returned to the level of 1.3886 for the second and third time. A new upward trend line formed, which signaled an upward trend for the pair, but for a very short time, since by the end of the day the quotes went below it. The bears managed to consolidate the pair back below the trend line, so the trend reversed to a downward trend. The 1.3886 level was overcome yesterday, but the price very quickly returned to the area below it. Therefore, it seems that we are talking about a rebound. About the third rebound. We also continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels: 1.3677, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794, 1.3886, 1.3948. Senkou Span B (1.3807) and Kijun-sen (1.3819) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Wednesday, September 15, the UK will publish a report on inflation for August, which may accelerate from 2.0% to 2.9% per annum. Thus, if the forecasts come true, this report could provoke a fairly good reaction from the markets. Also, a report on industrial production will be published in America, but has a lesser degree of significance.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair gained 80 points during the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6). The most important group of non-commercial traders continues to decrease their net position, and their mood is becoming increasingly bearish. These changes are clearly visible on the indicators in the chart above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (the net position of the "non-commercial" group) has already gone below the zero level and continues to decline. Simply put, the mood of the major players has already changed to bearish and is now only getting stronger. However, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend is over due to the too weak correction against this trend (recall: only 23.6%). It is the weakness of the correction over the past six months that does not allow us to conclude that a new downward trend has begun to form, and not just a correction. Thus, the major players continue to sell off the pound, while the currency itself, after three attempts, could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666. Therefore, we believe that in the first place in terms of importance is the factor of infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy by the Federal Reserve, which ensures the depreciation of the dollar in the long run and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. During the reporting week, non-commercial traders closed 5.5 thousand buy contracts (longs) and opened 2.5 thousand sell contracts (shorts). But despite the fact that the major players are bearish, this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
