To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the support of 1.1853 and to the data that came out in the first half of the day. Inflation in Germany did not meet the expectations of traders and fully coincided with the forecasts of economists, which led to the formation of pressure on the euro. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how the bears are pushing through the support of 1.1853, but it has not reached a normal reverse test of this level from the bottom up. Therefore, there were no signals for entering the market in the first half of the day.

The US session promises to be quite interesting, as a report on the US consumer price index is being published, which can both increase pressure on the euro and lead to a sharp increase. Everything will depend on whether the economists' expectations differ from the real data. The bulls need to protect the support of 1.1826 in the second half of the day. The formation of a false breakdown will form a good entry point for the continuation of the upward trend, which will allow us to regain control over the level of 1.1853, which buyers missed during the European session. Fixing and testing this level from top to bottom after the US inflation data forms an additional entry point into long positions to restore the euro to the week's maximum of 1.1878, where I recommend fixing the profits. Only going beyond this range will lead to a resumption of the bullish trend and an update of the area of 1.1904. If the pressure on the euro continues in the second half of the day, and the bulls do not show themselves in the support area of 1.1826, it is best to postpone purchases until the update of a larger minimum of 1.1793, where you can buy the pair immediately for a rebound, counting on a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day. The next major support is seen in the area of 1.1769.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears are still trying to return to the market and are very much counting on a breakdown of the support of 1.1826 in the second half of the day after the data on the US economy. Only exceeding the expected growth rates of inflation in the US will lead to a consolidation below 1.1826, and a test of this area from the bottom up will form a good signal to open short positions in the continuation of the bear market to fall the pair to a minimum of 1.1793. The update of which will form a new downward trend in the euro and will open the possibility of a decline to the local lows of 1.1769 and 1.1740, where I recommend fixing profits. If EUR/USD rises during the US session after the release of fundamental reports on the US economy, an equally important task for the bears will be to protect the resistance of 1.1853, above which the moving averages are now passing, playing on the sellers' side. The formation of a false breakout forms an entry point for short positions in the continuation of the morning bear market. If there is no activity of sellers, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1878, which coincides with the maximum of this week. You can immediately sell the pair for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, due to the sharp growth of short positions, it was possible to observe a reduction in the overall positive net position. This balance of forces does not take into account the growth of the pair, which was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and admitted that it would allow exceeding the target for some time in the future. This turned out to be enough for euro buyers to start building up long positions. Now, the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be considered as a good reason to increase long positions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 209,058 to the level of 212,998, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 121,912 to the level of 135,808. This week, there are no important fundamental statistics on the eurozone, so the focus will be shifted to inflation in the United States, and the volume of retail sales. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the economic recovery in the summer, so I recommend betting on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 87,146 to the level of 77,190. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1928 to the level of 1.1862.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by bears to reverse the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1878 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.