GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD currency pair was trading on Friday, of course, more actively than the EUR/USD pair. This is clearly seen. However, it should be noted right away that the macroeconomic background for both major pairs was identical on Friday. And the pairs themselves moved as closely as possible. Thus, there is no point in listing the entire macroeconomic background on July 2. We already analyzed it in the article on the euro/dollar pair. As for the pound/dollar pair, everything is much more boring here. Only two trading signals were formed during the day, both on Friday evening, that is, they should not have been worked out. And in any case, their development would not bring traders a lot of profit. In principle, it is good that there were no signals during the day, since the pair started to trade more chaotic from the beginning of the US session, which, of course, could have led to losses, although we would advise traders to leave the market ahead of important releases. Thus, at this time, the global plans for the pair are more important. For example, the pair went beyond the trend line at the hourly timeframe. The dollar has technical grounds for a decline to the 1.3600-1.3666 area at the higher time frames. At the 4-hour TF, it can bounce off the moving average line. Therefore, this week the technical picture of all timeframes may significantly change.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 5. Strong Nonfarm triggered the fall of the US dollar...
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 5. Janet Yellen warns of possible US default.
GBP/USD 1H
The pair's quotes have settled above the downward trend line on the hourly timeframe, which means that the market sentiment has changed to an upward trend. Of course, this is only an hourly timeframe, but we should still expect the British currency to strengthen on it. In general, the situation is very clear on the hourly timeframe, but in the aggregate, many timeframes predict different movements of the pair. Therefore, we recommend paying more attention to the timeframe you are trading on. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3677, 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859, 1.4000. Senkou Span B (1.3892) and Kijun-sen (1.3827) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Services PMI is due in the UK on Monday, but nothing in the US. Yesterday was the All-American Independence Day holiday and today will be a day off. Thus, volatility for all pairs with the dollar may sharply decline, and strong and sharp movements are clearly not worth expecting.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 50 points during the last reporting week (June 22-28). However, there is still a feeling that the current decline in the pound is a temporary phenomenon. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed different pictures at different times, but the pound still continues to grow in the long term. A group of non-commercial traders closed 35 buy contracts (longs) and opened 454 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position decreased by 420 contracts. But seriously, you shouldn't even pay attention to these changes, since they are minimal. Nevertheless, the mood of professional traders is still bullish, as the total number of open buy contracts in the Non-commercial group remains 1.5 times greater than the number of sell contracts. Although professional traders for the pound did not buy the British currency at breakneck speed in the last year, nevertheless, the pound has been growing all this time. The first indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders (green line) has been falling in recent weeks, but this decline pattern is fundamentally different from a similar line for the euro. If there was a clear trend for the euro and the actions of large players were indeed reflected in the COT charts, then in the case of the pound, the data that reflect the actions of non-commercial traders is very chaotic and does not fit well with how the British currency has been moving in the last year. Actually, the indicators do not even show that the pound was actively bought, although the British currency has sharply grown over the past year and a half. Thus, once again it should be remembered that the pound may rise simply because the money supply in the United States has inflated and continues to swell. Consequently, the dollar depreciates, and as a result, the pound's rate rises.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
