EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was simply "in a coma" during the third trading day of the week. Volatility during the day was 24 points. Needless to say, with such volatility, entering the market does not make much sense? We always recommend traders to manually close all trading positions in the evening and not carry them over to the next day. This was especially relevant yesterday, as the results of the Federal Reserve meeting were published in the evening, as well as a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. We do not consider all of the pair's movements in the evening, since it was still not recommended to work them out. No important macroeconomic report or other event during the day. Traders showed that they are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting and do not intend to open deals before this event. No trading signal generated during the day, so there was no need to open positions. The price did not even approach any extreme level or any important line. In general, the pair is still moving very close to a flat. We have already repeatedly drawn your attention to the fact that volatility has been very weak lately. And here it should be borne in mind that the movements of the pair are very weak in the daytime. How the pair moves at night or at events like the Fed meeting, which happen once every 1.5 months, is another matter. Thus, the minimal downward trend continues, but capitalizing on this remains extremely difficult.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 17. The Fed meeting in any case will not change the pair's current state of affairs.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 17. The pound was upset over the news of the pandemic in the UK. But not too much.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair also traded in a dull manner on the hourly timeframe. You can clearly see that the price has spent the last few days between the Kijun-sen line (1.2143) and the level of 1.2104. But we are talking about several trading days, during which volatility did not exceed 40 points. Again, we do not take into account the movements from last night and which a priori were very difficult to predict and work out. And so, the quotes of the pair still do not show any desire to move actively. The US dollar seems to be getting more expensive (the downward channel remains), but this trend borders on the concept of a flat. On Thursday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that have remained unchanged lately. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2051, 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2178) and Kijun-sen (1.2143) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Thursday, the European Union is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for May and, according to forecasts, this figure may reach 2%. This is the final estimate of inflation for May, so the markets can ignore it completely, as in the first estimate inflation also rose to 2%. The situation is much more dull in the United States, we have a report on claims for unemployment benefits that will be published during the day, which traders have almost always ignored lately, and a reaction of 20 points is unlikely to interest anyone.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 40 points during the last reporting week (June 1-7). All the weeks that recently passed have ended with such minor changes. Not surprising given that the pair has been in a limited range for several weeks now. Professional traders closed about 5,500 buy contracts (longs) and around 400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group decreased by 5,000 contracts. These are small changes for the European currency, which is still the most popular among all players in the world after the dollar itself. Recently, however, non-commercial traders have mainly increased their longs, so the data from the last reporting week can be considered an exception in some way. So far, the main lines of the first indicator continue to move away from each other, which indicates that the bullish mood on the market is preserved. Consequently, we have the right to count on a new strengthening of the European currency, especially since the factor of the global increase in the money supply in the United States continues to work in favor of the European currency.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
