4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 73p - 58p - 84p - 178p - 104p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 99p (high).
"By textbook", the GBP/USD pair passed Tuesday, September 17. Traders corrected the pair to the Kijun-sen critical line, from which a rebound followed, and now we expect the upward trend to resume. Tomorrow's Fed meeting, at which the key rate will be lowered has a probability of above 50%, will have an impact on the pound/dollar pair. Thus, strengthening the pair today is logical, especially after the correction. Of course, the Federal Reserve may surprise tomorrow. This surprise can be easily tracked on Twitter by Donald Trump, who probably already prepared a new angry message to the Federal Reserve and Powell personally in case the regulator refuses to mitigate monetary policy. However, besides this, the British currency and its traders are also interested in the results of the meeting of the Supreme Court of Great Britain in the case of Boris Johnson's illegal suspension of the work of Parliament. The meeting began a few hours ago, so no information has yet been received from the walls of the Court. The fate of the holidays of deputies will be decided by 11 judges. The prosecution states that Prime Minister Johnson dispersed the Parliament so that the deputies did not interfere with his implementation of the "hard" Brexit, and not because he wanted to develop a new government work program. Accordingly, prosecutors believe that Johnson lied to Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain when he substantiated his request to suspend Parliament. If the Court decides that Boris Johnson made an illegal decision, then MPs can officially count the victory in the next round of confrontation with the prime minister, and the pound can once again feel the support of currency traders.
For the British pound, tomorrow is also important because inflation for August will be published and, according to analysts, it may slow down from 2.1% to 1.9% y/y. The slowdown in inflation is already a "bearish" factor for the pound. If the consumer price index really drops to 1.9% y/y, or even lower, the hope of the British currency will be that more important information from the Supreme Court of the UK and from the Fed will be in favor of the pound and will "block" the negative from inflation . In any case, interesting and rich trades are waiting for traders tomorrow, but caution should be kept in mind, since there will really be a lot of news tomorrow, all of them are important, therefore the reaction of certain groups of traders and large players may not coincide, which will affect the pair's movement charts in the form strong and sharp turns, ups and downs of the pair for short periods of time.
Trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar currency pair completed a round of downward correction near the Kijun-sen line. Thus, now it is again recommended to buy the pound with targets at 1.2527 and 1.2590. Consolidating the price below the critical line will allow us to consider selling while aiming for 1.2327 and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud - Senkou Span B. line
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
