For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed volatility below the average daily 44 points, but this did not stop the bears to keep the leadership in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a rapid decline during the entire trading week, where the quotation almost without difficulty overcame a number of important levels that kept the quotation. It is theoretically possible to continue the descending move, but so far only overheating of short positions is visible, where there is already stagnation.
The information background did not have any harsh statements, but the news flow contained data on the volume of orders for durable goods (mar m / m) in the USA, where they expected a growth of 0.7%, but as a result received more rapid jump of 2.7%.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on US GDP for Q1, where a slowdown is expected from 2.2% to 2.0%, which could put pressure on the dollar.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is replete with statistics and events. The most current data is displayed below.
Tuesday
EU 12:00 MSK - GDP (y / y): Prev. 1.1%
EU 12:00 MSK - Unemployment (mar): Prev. 7.8% ---> Forecast 7.8%
United States 17:00 MSK - Index of pending sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Mar): Prev. -1.0% ---> Forecast 1.0%
Wednesday
United States 15:15 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Apr): Prev. 129K ---> Forecast 175K
United States 17:00 MSK - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) from ISM (Apr): Prev. 55.3 ---> Forecast 55.0
United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC Press Conference
Thursday
EU 11:00 MSK - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Apr): Prev. 47.8 ---> Forecast 47.8
United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Mar): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%
Friday
EU 12:00 MSK - Consumer Price Index ( CPI) (y / y) (Apr): Prev. 1.4% ---> Forecast 1.5%
United States 15:30 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Apr): 196K ---> Forecast 180K
United States 15:30 MSK - Unemployment rate (Apr): Prev. 3.8% ---> Forecast 3.8%
United States 17:00 MSK - Non-manufacturing Business PMI (PMI) from ISM (Apr): 56.1 ---> Forecast 57.2
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote felt a certain point of support in the face of the value of 1.1120, where, together with oversoldness, a stagnation of two-digit doji-type candles formed. It is likely to assume that, against the background of oversold and US statistics coming out today, we can see a long-awaited pullback towards the previously passed level of 1.1180. In any case, traders carefully analyze the current foothold, in case the bearish interest does not subside and we see just a pullback with stagnation.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, a rising interest has arisen against the background of stagnation with a rollback. Intraday and mid-term perspectives also maintain a downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(April 26 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 23 points. In case of support from the continuation of the news background, volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
